The onset of the southwest monsoon has historically been a complex event, and this year, there’s anticipation that the rain-bearing system might arrive in Odisha earlier than usual. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), indications suggest that the southwest monsoon could advance into the south Andaman Sea, certain parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands by May 19, preceding its typical onset date of May 22 by two days. Typically, the southwest monsoon establishes over Kerala around June 1, but this time, experts speculate it could reach the southern region earlier than expected. Additionally, there’s a forecast for the monsoon to reach Odisha before its usual arrival date of June 12. However, it’s essential to note that the onset and progression of the southwest monsoon can be influenced adversely by any disruptive weather systems that may form during this period. The anticipated increase in cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere towards the eastern Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea during the third week of May could further expedite the advancement of the southwest monsoon. Moreover, preceding the southerly to south-westerly monsoonal surge, there’s expected elevation in lower-level vorticity over the mentioned regions, which could potentially favor the formation of a depression.
The onset of the southwest monsoon in Odisha may potentially occur sooner than expected.
