United Nations, June 12: India is set to continue as the world’s most populous country into the next century, with its population peaking in the mid-2060s before a gradual decline, according to a UN population expert.
Clare Menozzi, Senior Population Affairs Officer, revealed at the release of the UN World Population Prospects 2024 Summary that India is currently the largest country in terms of population and is expected to remain so throughout the century.
The nation’s population is projected to peak around the 2060s and then begin a slow decline. By the end of the century, India’s population is forecasted to be approximately 1.5 billion, still maintaining its position as the largest country by a significant margin.
The report indicates that India’s population will grow from 1.45 billion currently to a peak of 1.7 billion in 2064, followed by a decline to 1.5 billion by 2100, marking a 12 percent decrease.
India’s working-age population (20 to 64 years) is expected to grow until 2054, presenting a demographic dividend. To leverage this opportunity, the report recommends investment in education, health, infrastructure, and job creation, along with reforms to enhance government efficiency.
Life expectancy in India is projected to increase from 72.24 years now to 83.3 years by 2100. The total fertility rate (TFR) is expected to decline from the current 1.96 to 1.69 at the start of the next century. A TFR of 2.2 is considered the replacement rate to maintain a stable population, and a decline below this signals a future population decrease.
In the next 30 years, Pakistan is projected to become the world’s third-most populous country, increasing its population from 251 million to 389 million by 2054, surpassing the United States and Indonesia. In the same year, India is expected to have a population of 1.69 billion, and China 1.21 billion.
Globally, the population is anticipated to peak in the mid-2080s, growing from the current 8.2 billion to around 10.3 billion before slightly declining to 10.2 billion by the century’s end. The report highlights an ageing population trend, with senior citizens projected to outnumber children by the late 2070s. By the mid-2030s, those aged 80 and over will outnumber infants, reaching 265 million.
The report suggests that countries adopt technology to boost productivity across all ages and expand lifelong learning and re-training to extend working lives for those who can and wish to continue working.
John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division, emphasized that future global conditions will be shaped more by behavior and policy choices than population numbers. “The world in 60 years will depend on decisions made now, policies implemented, and technological advances,” he said. “Population trends will be a factor, but not necessarily the most significant one. What really matters is our behaviors and choices.”
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